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People Getting What They Want

Posted on April 30, 2009 by Dr. John Luthy

We want… is a common refrain. Various interests want good and more roads, less congestion, free parking close to shopping areas, nice, well kept parks, a zero downtime infrastructure, clean water, great health services, housing services for the poor and disenfranchised, really nice police officers, a responsive EMS system, fire stations close to MY property, clean air, etc. This list goes on. It is enormous. In this society citizens want and expect many things. But what can we afford?

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | Leave a Comment »

A Path To Progress

Posted on April 24, 2009 by Dr. John Luthy

I have lately been involved with various forms of analysis and municipal planning energized by the economic downturn. Progress toward various goals or even sensible destinations has been hampered by fear-driven pessimism and the tendency to find comfort in inertia. As a ‘progressive conservative’ I hold firm to the belief that moving forward is always [...]

Filed under: Leading The Future | Leave a Comment »

Forecast for Q2 – General Thoughts and Data

Posted on April 21, 2009 by Dr. John Luthy

This is the perfect time for federal, state and local officials to consider what specific agencies should look like five or ten years from now. It appears that the current trend is toward more government and perhaps more intrusive government (I heard this again today from a financial services professional). I am not so sure this is a viable trend. It may be a reactive and curative/preventive action that might not endure at its present level. What will endure is the public’s interest in fairness, truth, and services. The key is to pay attention, be ready to act, and understand long-term consequences.

Filed under: Predictions | 1 Comment »

Probability, Predictability and Inevitability

Posted on April 16, 2009 by Dr. John Luthy

Having data is the key. If there are 4,400 miles of asphalt roadway in the county, average weather, traffic weight and volume data is available, and road surface lifespan is known, managers can predict deterioration rates. Replacement can then be scheduled and budgeted. Pretty simple. The key is a focus on the future – and data that allows probability analysis and predictability. It is a learned skill and an earned perspective.

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Deviate From The Norm, Please!

Posted on April 13, 2009 by Dr. John Luthy

There are far too many decisions that abandon strategic thought for the safe world of normative thinking – most of which is fueled by budget cycles and crises. While there are many rare and unpredictable events that have and will shape communities, there are ample data to assess potential and apply predictability equations IF officials and managers can break away from static, normative thinking that tends to produce the same results year after year. (Didn’t Al Einstein define that as insanity?)

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | Leave a Comment »

We Don’t Know Hard Times

Posted on April 8, 2009 by Dr. John Luthy

Timothy Egan’s remarkable book on the American Dust Bowl era (The Worst Hard Time, Mariner Books 2006) is an exclamation point for those who remain optimistic during the current downturn. From 1929 through 1939 those who had sought their fortunes on the central plains, in industry or in the financial centers of New York or [...]

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | Leave a Comment »

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