PublicFutures Blog

The phenomenon of predictable surprise occurs when people cannot accept facts that would allow them to properly prepare and plan for anything other than immediate disasters. It is easier to react to a flood or tornado than to prepare for weather that may or may not happen. Even when the data and attendant probability calculations begin to tell us that it is a reasonably good idea to get ready, we often choose to wait to see what happens. By then, of course, it is often too late.

When you review all the converging variables – the level of deferred maintenance (for roads, sewer and water infrastructure, airports, ports, buildings, and various federal, state and local systems,) an educational system under fire, Medicare and Medicaid issues, questions about the longevity of Social Security, escalating health care costs, and the ongoing total cost of dubious wars – you have the ingredients for predictable economic struggles. There should be no surprise.

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Commentaries continue to offer various rants about the federal budget, debt ceiling, infrastructure decline and the growing feeling that Afghanistan is a lost cause. Imbalance of trade, job loss, a slow recovery, and a wary public are variables converging on decision makers as 2011 moves into the second half. Wiser and more cogent thinkers suggest [...]

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At a time when so many variables are converging on public agencies, has the ability to think strategically become less consequential? Top managers, executives and elected officials still seem convinced that planning has merit, and certainly, many professionals are exceptional planners. But is seems that the most common theme among employees is “Why do we have [...]

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Overall, we are seeing more people begin to understand that there will be no return to any previous ‘normal’ but an evolution to a new economy – parts of which will seem alien and contrary to historic American capitalism. But for those who study such things, it is clear that levels of U.S. consumerism were unsustainable, as were income growth patterns, the number of new businesses and new jobs, and the range of entitlements demanded by the majority of citizens. Something had to give.

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Within all the rhetoric, there seems to be one constant. Those individuals, institutions and governments that carefully plan according to a long-term vision that is based on prudent, sustainable progress have done pretty well. This is a time to seek a path of progress based on moderation. It is a time to decide on central community platforms that sustain quality of life, safety, social harmony and economic vitality. We may have to reduce expectations for a short period, but the future will come whether we’re ready or not. Are you simultaneously confronting short- and long-term realities? And are there signs that your community is prepared for the challenges ahead?

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Debt is debilitating. It is a sign of profligate living and an unsustainable American lifestyle. We all know it has to change…so let’s change. I have surmised in this Blog that we can have superior quality of life for a lot less money – both at home and in our communities. It is a matter of recalibration. But that takes time and careful planning. Strategic thinking has never been more critical…

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In my view, the absence of appropriate comprehensive strategic thinking and planning systems in so many public agencies is one of the multiple factors that inhibit the progress, adaptability and stability of state and local government. This is especially critical now in an era of declining revenues, greater public scrutiny and the importance of transforming to leaner, more accountable government.

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For those elected officials and professional public managers who have not read the new book by Patrick Carr and Maria Kefalas, it is a must-read. Hollowing Out the Middle: The Rural Brain Drain and What It Means for America is a marvelous book about the motivations and heartache that accompanies hard decisions related to abandoning a nurturing rural community. Journalist Nick Reding has captured similar sentiments and causative factors in his equally powerful book, Methland, which documents the new economy, changing social structures and the corrosive polarity that exists between the communities celebrated by Richard Florida and those he, Carr and Kefalas describe.

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Data by itself is merely information. We place values on it and determine its positive or negative impact on enterprise, program, or community. Like most aspects of strategic thinking and planning, the process is typically more valuable than the product. Merely getting together to review data, establish parameters, and calculate probability will pay enormous dividends. Unfortunately, far too many public leaders and government agencies neglect this intrinsic management activity.

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A city manager once told me that the only goal established for his community is ‘To Achieve Quality of Life for all Citizens.’ While a commendable vision, in my view it is hardly a strategic goal that belongs in a strategic plan. I didn’t win many points when I asked him to list the criteria [...]

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