• Welcome to the FUTURE!

    The PublicFutures BLOG keeps you current on the latest research and thinking on major trends, policy shifts, 'hot topics', and evolving perspectives about the Future. Be sure to subscribe to the RSS or get email updates so you are kept up-to-date on all the latest posts.

  • Email Updates

    Subscribe to PublicFutures Blog by Email

  • Share the FUTURE with the world!

  • Learn more at our Company Site

    The Futures Corporation

Surprise!

Posted on July 18, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

Brutal drought has captured much of the Midwest and Southern U.S. as record temperatures threaten crops, health and already struggling economies. For those who take time to discuss the probability of future events the 2011 drought is hardly surprising. While this does not diminish its potential to bring great harm to the 17 states that are being affected, it does underscore the power of predictable surprise.

Reviewing meteorological trend data, it was clear some time ago that a very strong La Nina would shut down the moisture ‘pipeline’ that typically runs through the Midwest and South. This abnormal cooling of Pacific water normally follows El Nino, an abnormal warming of the same waters. A similar pattern was recorded in the early to mid-1950s, which remains a record-breaking period that impacted the economy with higher prices while reducing the availability of produce and beef.

With the recovery still bumping along, this does not bode well for state and local economies. People and enterprises remain in various stages of assuming or living a bunker mentality and many have been left with few resources to weather this storm. This is a sad play on words except, of course, when clashing weather patterns bring horrendous downpours and flash floods, or provide germination for tornados that decimate entire communities. We were told the climate is changing and would grow more violent, extreme and unpredictable. Are there any believers? Anyone? Anyone? By the way, similar weather is predicted for 2012.

The phenomenon of predictable surprise occurs when people cannot accept facts that would allow them to properly prepare and plan for anything other than immediate disasters. It is easier to react to a flood or tornado than to prepare for weather that may or may not happen. Even when the data and attendant probability calculations begin to tell us that it is a reasonably good idea to get ready, we often choose to wait to see what happens. By then, of course, it is often too late.

Recent news stories have trumpeted that, due to weather-related issues, hope for strong economic recovery is all but tabled for another year. Business vitality is declining along with optimism and cash. Many ran out of savings a long time ago and struggling banks are more unwilling than ever to assist. In Texas alone, 213 out of 254 counties have been designated as natural disaster areas. They are eligible for aid, but it most likely won’t be enough to sustain every farm, ranch, business or community hit by various elements of this disastrous weather pattern. Similar scenarios are playing out in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, New Mexico and other states at a time when the federal government is reeling from Congressional budget ping-pong. States are receiving aid, but it will probably be insufficient to counter predicted impacts, much less energize recovery.

Folks, it was clearly predicted that more jobs would be lost and that job recovery would be the slowest aspect of economic recovery. We are not merely recovering; we are transforming a global economy. With government downsizing, around 660,000 public sector jobs have disappeared in the past 12 months.  You can’t rant for reduced government then gripe that jobs are being cut…you can’t have it both ways. Virtually all economists predicted that unemployment would stay high. So why do so many people seem surprised that unemployment has not declined? While there has been a net job gain, it was only around 18,000 jobs last month – not enough to move the needle much. Certainly, this is a political tool for those seeking office, but the reality is that nothing can be done about jobs until the transformation is close to complete. 

Housing prices and sales remain low and may even drop more this year. In terms of economic recovery, if you toss in the impact of severe weather, banks continuing their reluctance to lend, Congressional diddling, and an abundance of consumer discontent, we will see slow growth into 2012. In fact, count on slow growth through 2014.

When you review all the converging variables – the level of deferred maintenance (for roads, sewer and water infrastructure, airports, ports, buildings, and various federal, state and local systems,) an educational system under fire, Medicare and Medicaid issues, questions about the longevity of Social Security, escalating health care costs, and the ongoing total cost of dubious wars – you have the ingredients for predictable economic struggles. There should be no surprise.

I do not wish to imply that one can fully prepare for weather disasters. But I do encourage a commitment to data analysis to determine reality. Once you and your community understand what IS occurring and what might occur with some predictability, sensible preparations can be made. Don’t be surprised if the river floods when engineers have emphatically stated that a certain rainfall or snowmelt would produce flows that would overwhelm existing levees. And, of course, when meteorologists have explained new weather patterns that will bring three times as much rain to the area in heavy downpours. Pay attention and take heed.  Don’t be surprised when conditions change or challenges emerge when they were clearly predicted and/or predictable through simple analysis and scenario planning. I wonder- is your community confronting reality? Is it prepared for the predicted challenges ahead?

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Thinking & Planning | Leave a Comment »

Part II Strategic Thinking – No Laughing Matter

Posted on July 5, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

Commentaries continue to offer various rants about the federal budget, debt ceiling, infrastructure decline and the growing feeling that Afghanistan is a lost cause. Imbalance of trade, job loss, a slow recovery, and a wary public are variables converging on decision makers as 2011 moves into the second half. Wiser and more cogent thinkers suggest that the path forward, while paved with cautious optimism, must have a foundation of consistent, careful consideration. Measure twice, cut once; tortoise and the hare…easy does it seems to be the ticket.

 Having vision conveys the ability to see the future through a prism forged from experience and analysis. What we want is not always in concert with available resources, existing policy or public support. Far too many continue to follow a path based on a narrow, short-term view, when other cultures learned centuries ago to take it slow and proceed carefully during a transformation. This takes us back to the value of an entirely new pattern of strategic thought.

 Strategic Planning

 For public agencies a Strategic Plan is strategic in nature because it addresses only the major issues and challenges the agency (and ultimately the entire state, county or community) is facing, along with goals, objectives, strategies and actions. It is issue driven and pertains to existing or predicted problems that are encountered by agencies responsible for dealing with them. Some issues will be shared among multiple agencies but application of strategies (how issues are addressed) will differ.

 Operations Plans are different because they define for each department and its component parts the various missions, operating (as opposed to strategic) goals, planned annual outputs and expected outcomes for general operations. Hard performance metrics are included for each output and clear outcomes are stated. This plan answers the question, ‘What are you doing and what is the community or taxpayer getting for the dollars spent?’ It is typically a summary document that describes the various operating elements of each department along with a description of what is being provided for an annual budget established to maintain current operations. Why is this so confusing?

 For many years our research and work with public agencies has shown that properly crafted strategic and operational plans naturally lend themselves to internal improvement planning. They foster a concise report that describes internal issues or circumstances that inhibit the agency from achieving its mission, then offers remedies with estimated costs if new money is required. Once identified, most internal issues are addressed with already appropriated and allocated funds. They are merely re-allocated to address specific high priority internal issues. This simple report generates significant management commitment to continuous improvement and demonstrates to executives that each agency is invested in reviewing and addressing problems that impact the quality or efficiency of internal operations. Its inherent value is that it formalizes internal improvement through a process that offers great latitude but still focuses resources on agency development.

 The above reports are different than annual reports, which summarize the major elements of Strategic, Operations, and Improvement plans. These have many formats; some are quite extensive, others are summaries. But all provide the chief executive, board, council, commission, and public with an overview of what each agency is facing, its general operations, how it is improving, and what it is accomplishing for the funds expended.

 I can hear what some readers are thinking – ‘That is too much! We don’t have time for all those plans and reports!’ Here’s the interesting thing. After working with many state agencies, cities and counties over the years, most already have a variety of required plans and reports. Rarely, however, do I find a comprehensive executive planning approach that even partially connects key planning efforts to one central process. Done well, it is much faster and efficient, generates less heartburn and provides better overall reporting. The genesis of the many forces contributing to the need for evolved planning systems matters little. What does matter is that the magnitude of restricted funds and growing needs now confronting state and local government demand greater commitment to comprehensive executive planning and resource allocation.

 Unfortunately, of the many strategic plans we review every year, most are hybrids containing various characteristics of both operations and strategic plans with some aspects of annual reporting tossed in. Our research has shown that far too few public agencies take time to develop and maintain either strategic or operations plans. Quite often, there are no formal (or even informal) internal plans describing the activities of various departments, the programs and activities for which each is accountable, or the basic outcomes each is expected to produce.

 It has become critical that progressive cities and counties require departments to have at least rudimentary operating plans that explain what services are offered to whom, what outputs are delivered, and how outcomes are measured. Municipal governments must tie performance measures to budget allocation and create a “triage” system based on what services are most essential to sustain an economically vibrant, safe, and harmonious community. Unfortunately, the annual budget appropriation and allocation process is too often a battle among departments that pitches director against director and occasionally elected officials against each other as they collectively grapple with service priorities.

 Strategic thinking requires process; it requires a sensible approach that fits state and local government. More importantly, it requires a vision founded on good data, a reverence for community legacy, and the willingness to proceed at a measured, consistent pace. There are communities that are doing well during this challenging time. What are their attributes? Why are they solvent, harmonious and economically sound? Is there a pattern and does it offer a strategic approach?

With almost four decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Thinking & Planning | 1 Comment »

Strategic Thinking – No Laughing Matter

Posted on June 24, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

At a time when so many variables are converging on public agencies, has the ability to think strategically become less consequential? Top managers, executives and elected officials still seem convinced that planning has merit, and certainly, many professionals are exceptional planners. But is seems that the most common theme among employees is “Why do we have to do this?  It is a waste of time.”

As evidenced in previous discussions about possible and probable futures, strategic thinking and planning have become the most critical elements of public management. Even though we have witnessed the advent of multiple planning activities over the past three decades, it is clear that overall strategic thought has become a key success factor that must be built into the fabric of every organization. In terms of professional development, the ability to think and plan strategically is one of the principal skills every responsible manager should possess and integrate into every work team, no matter how large or small. As often noted in this Blog, it is important to understand that strategic planning is a process and not a program.  While the central elements of a plan can be taught, it is the process of collaboratively planning and implementing that pays the greatest dividends.

The Concept of Executive Planning

It dawned on me one day that, from the early 1970s through the first decade of this new millennium – over the 39 years I have worked in and for state and local government, I have never seen a fully integrated executive planning system – especially one formulated for government. Having done planning for Fortune 500 companies and many smaller firms with revenues ranging from $1 million to over $3 billion, as well as for state and local government, I have become familiar with many planning approaches – often finding them merely retreads of previous processes. I would imagine that many readers have enjoyed using and incorporating various elements of Systems Theory, Malcolm Baldridge National Quality Award criteria,  Balanced Scorecard, Six Sigma, Total Quality Management, Management by Objective, ISO 9000, its applications and updates (quality standards from the International Organization for Standardization in Geneva), and other continuous improvement approaches.

 Many senior managers have experimented with the older-style SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats), as well as PEST reviews (Political, Economic, Social, and Technological), and STEER analysis (Socio-cultural, Technological, Economic, Ecological, and Regulatory). All have merit if applied properly, but do they provide a complete executive planning system for government? Not really. While various components have value, when used alone they don’t connect all the dots.

 Many state and local agencies have annual plans (some strategic, some not), operations plans, and annual budgets; communities are responsible for developing multi-year comprehensive plans; utilities are required to have solid waste, water and wastewater system plans; and public safety has annual plans that detail disaster response, crime prevention and homeland security measures. Even with this volume of planning activity I have only occasionally seen a local government that has an aligned planning system with guidelines, internal training, linkages, templates, shared measurement, and a summarized annual reporting process.

 In my view, the absence of comprehensive planning systems is one of the multiple factors that inhibit the progress, adaptability and stability of state and local government. This is especially critical now in an era of declining revenues, greater public scrutiny and the importance of transforming to leaner, more accountable government.

 It seems apparent that for practical reasons and to promote efficiency it is essential to pursue more integrated planning at the executive level of state and local government. That typically means involvement by all executive department directors as well as by commissioners, city managers and mayors who serve as chief executive officers. Generally, elected officials receive plans but are not instrumental in their development. To properly plan, develop, and operate essential community services, local governments need an overall executive planning process that includes strategic planning, operations planning, organization improvement planning, and financial planning.

 Even though public planning has evolved considerably over the past decade, those efforts will be consistently driven and defined by four factors:

1. The importance of understanding current and emerging issues and preparing for future challenges that have high probability of significant community impact.

2. Greater attention dedicated to accountability through efforts that assess program value and contribution to the community, and the explicit requirement that every program show measured performance, progress toward planned outcomes and value for resources expended.

3. Greater clarity about agency and program missions (why they exist), long-term goals (expected outcomes), measureable annual objectives, tangible performance indicators and scheduled strategies/ actions that will be undertaken to achieve goals and objectives.

4. Detailed reports that describe agency and program efforts toward continuous internal improvement. Regardless of funding levels, the question must be posed, How is this agency improving its efficiency, effectiveness, productivity, and quality while keeping costs as low as possible? 

The basic question is, ‘What does Executive Planning for state and local government entail?’ I recommend that every governor, mayor, city manager, municipal board, county commission, etc. establish a series of plans and reports that address specific aspects of public management. Four annual documents should be required from all agencies:

  • Strategic Plan
  • Operations Plan or Summary
  • Internal Improvement Plan
  • Annual Report

My next Blog will explain each of these documents and why, when developed as one integrated system, they will build more efficiency, productivity, quality and performance into public agencies. Executive planning is a cornerstone of good public management and is clearly described in my new book, Planning the Future, released in October 2010.

 With almost four decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Thinking & Planning | 2 Comments »

The Evolution of Normal

Posted on May 30, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

As we plow through the second quarter of 2011, there remain signs of progress tempered with counter-admonitions ranging from the end of days to a return to deep recession. As always, nothing is ever as gloomy as some would have us believe, and facts indicate a cautious return to equilibrium. The country is still on a course that will generate around 3% GDP, unemployment is inching downward, and concern over federal debt and deficits seems to be getting genuine attention.

There is less financial leverage in the overall system, but there is also less foolish risk taking and more oversight. It would also appear that there is less fraud, but it remains to be seen if that particular pattern will continue. Government and industry are both concentrating on realities associated with greater productivity, fiscal accountability and innovation. And, there are signs that new seeds of innovation and creativity are being sown in virtually every sector, with the promise of significant returns just around the corner.

For those who do not understand the role of government, this has been an especially trying period. While it built enormous debt, the federal government has also been the great stabilizer. Through various means, it has stabilized financial services, brought elements of the auto industry back from the brink, and opened new dialogue on the subjects of fraud and misrepresentation. The result since 2007 has been less systemic leverage and more government…both of which must slowly seek an evolved state of balance that will accommodate the requirements of a revitalizing economy. Some news here, folks: With a growing population, demand for federal, state and local government services will increase – not decline. So, it is not the size of government that matters most, but its ability to operate efficiently while providing essential services. (And who defines essential?)

Overall, we are seeing more people begin to understand that there will be no return to any previous ‘normal’ but an evolution to a new economy – parts of which will seem alien and contrary to historic American capitalism. But for those who study such things, it is clear that levels of U.S. consumerism were unsustainable, as were income growth patterns, the number of new businesses and new jobs, and the range of entitlements demanded by the majority of citizens. Something had to give.

For the remainder of this decade, America’s GDP will be tied to the growth of global partners and its ability to both compete and collaborate on the world stage. Brazil, China, Argentina, Mexico, India, Canada, and many other countries are seeking global enterprise partners. After so long at the top, there is real concern whether the U.S. can strategically cooperate to take advantage of emerging markets, new enterprises, and the global thirst for development. Science, engineering, agriculture, communications technology, energy, education and healthcare can all be engines of community prosperity. Enterprise is a global and local driver…not politics or military strength. It is not capitalism so much as it is the advent of ‘free market democracy,’ that drives all nations and people to seek betterment and progress. It is happening; it is accelerating; and, it is impacting every community in the United States.

There will be other crises. However, as a society, we will be better prepared as debt is reduced, people become more cautious, savings increase, and accountability is restored. More critically, as young people join the workforce and mid-career professionals begin to more actively seek their fortunes, a new era of creativity will emerge. Watch carefully as other cultures adopt social media, cell phones and the Internet…then really begin communicating. Enormous change at the state and local level is occurring every day and will gain momentum. Now is not the time to pout and demand a return to the good old days. Now is the time to embrace opportunity, engage in new pursuits, and become fully open to new possibilities. As always, I ask, ‘Is your community fully Prepared for Challenge?’  

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning

Filed under: Thinking & Planning | Leave a Comment »

An Ignorant and Slippery Slope

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

Almost two years ago, Robert Samuelson wrote an essay in Newsweek (Let Them go Bankrupt, Soon, June 1, 2009) suggesting that citizens and politicians would never take Medicare and Social Security issues seriously until the systems failed. Citing extended life and more robust health among the U.S. population, he noted that more seniors (i.e. Boomers) will swamp both systems before mid-century.

While this is not the newest of news, it is interesting to me that Samuelson’s very powerful and carefully documented commentary and many since that time have failed to spark much effort to counter the slide to oblivion. Over the next 75 years, Social Security and Medicare will cost around $103 trillion while revenues will generate approximately $57 trillion. With a gap of almost $46 trillion, one would reasonably calculate this country would be in a precarious fiscal dilemma known to most of us Pilgrims as bankruptcy.

To be sure, our society places a premium on caring for the old, disadvantaged and infirm, but what of all the other obligations? One would think public infrastructure (ports, airports, highways, and bridges), defense, public health, public transportation, housing and education are worth retaining. If Medicare and Social Security trust funds won’t be exhausted until 2017 and 2037 respectively, it would seem we have time for a course correction. Why has there been no action?  Review the facts – every administration and congress merely pushes the crises further into the future, as the current crop of diddlers do little more that nibble around the edges and posture for political gain.

Tax reform is inevitable. As it would be in any private enterprise, growing debt indicates living beyond the means required to support the business. At some point, it is time to 1) cut spending, and 2) do what is possible to grow revenue. Pretty simple.  U.S. tax rates are generally low for the middle class and ridiculously low for high earners. Corporations, on the other hand, could use a tax break, which in turn might bring some of the multinationals (and their tax revenues) back home. Even slightly raising taxes for a period of time would help right the ship, as long as those additional revenues were used in concert with spending reductions.

Even larger looming issues are actually a convergence of several enormous negative variables. Deteriorating infrastructure, declining educational performance, cost of education, incessant and meaningless warfare and a financial system that preys on a nation hooked on credit are all impacting the American culture. And, the slope is beginning to incline to the point that catastrophic impacts are bound to occur…not in decades, but within a few short years.

The climate is shifting, the housing bubble remains problematic for millions of homeowners, oil prices are escalating, and deferred maintenance has become a way of life. We are living on borrowed time and still cannot bring ourselves to quit posturing, reduce spending, focus on the essential, and take sensible corrective action. Keep in mind that, as we debate and dink around, the most serious variables are bearing down on this country. There will be a multi-trillion price to pay for deferred maintenance; there is still not enough oil to support global needs and fuel costs will continue to rise; the climate will continue to evolve, with potentially disastrous effects (monsoons, epic snow or tornados, anyone?); and existing entitlements will continue to push the country toward bankruptcy.

In the meantime, much of the developing world is intent in building a ‘free market democracy,’ meaning that everyone has an opportunity to do business. Whether the world is truly flat is questionable, but one thing is certain – many countries are quite interested in trade, progress, growth, and development.  Kiplinger’s global forecasts put GDP for Brazil, South Korea, Russia, and Mexico at between 4% and 5% for both 2011 and 2012. GDP for China and India will both exceed 9% for the next two years. The U.S. will max out at around 3% and the Euro zone probably won’t break 2%. Commerce drives revenue. However, it can neither energize good decision-making, nor provide the will to make difficult choices.

As stated many times in this Blog, everything must now be triaged. What is in the best common interest of every community and state must drive every decision…not political affiliation or ideology. Very few professionals I contact in Washington D.C. are optimistic about the future. This is due mostly to the lack of foresight and will being reflected in partisan deliberations and empty rhetoric. 2011 is nearly half over, and we are no closer to being prepared for the enormous challenges ahead.

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | 1 Comment »

Tilting at Windmills?

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

As we enter the second quarter, there remain counter-positions fueled by equal measures of optimism and pessimism. These dueling camps continue to joust for public attention, one offering every reason to fear the future, the other countering with rationale emanating from reasonable data that indicates recovery. When studied with some attention to detail, it becomes clear that there are merits to both perspectives, but progress will be elusive if built on a foundation of doubt, gloom and lost confidence. While I see the need to remain calculating and careful, I also see the value in forward thinking.

Tilting at windmills has become a platform for much of the national economic, political and social debate. From a very oblique and diverse Tea Party membership to a Washington establishment mired in self-serving tradition and partisanship, there seems to be more focus on following a negative course than finding one that leads, through obviously rough terrain, to a more promising future. Taking the negative has apparently become the standard, but it is a standard that citizens of every community find unsettling and certainly less than motivational.

A review of available data tells us that unemployment is hovering around 8.8% and that overall GDP should approach 3% for 2011. While this progress is not occurring at the desired pace, the seeds of a steady economic transformation have been sown and could very well blossom into tenable opportunity. What must be considered is that much of the recovering world economy is also struggling and many economies are flat-out broke. Their foundations were never strong and only endured because they were carried by the global economic surge. The U.S. economy is beginning to see broad-based hiring, growing orders, and cautious optimism from the investment community.  As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. has the staying power, experience, creativity and spirit to lead the global recovery. At stake is much more than its economic vitality; this country must also model the art of recovery and the maintenance of reason during a very difficult transformation.

But, having courage means facing both knowns and unknowns. Once the facts are known, the burden of action passes to the knowledge holder; there are no excuses for inaction… especially now, when the financial data are becoming clear. While one may be accused of tilting at windmills, the truth is, the U.S. is facing enormous difficulties. We know that unfunded entitlements (Medicare and Social Security) dwarf public debt and programs by almost 9 to 1. The numbers are staggering; there are obligations of close to $100 trillion in unfunded long-term entitlement payments. The meager diddling that is now being done by Congress is not nearly enough. In fact, it is pathetic when measured against what is at stake for America.

Mary Meeker’s historic (and frightening) slide show, entitled USA, Inc., highlights a Congressional Budget Office alternative case that reflects that, by 2025, U.S. government spending on entitlements and interest payments will consume 100% of government revenues.  This assumes that the Bush tax cuts remain in effect through 2020 except for a modest increase in the high-income tax rate. Given these circumstances, we’re totally upside down.  Unfortunately, as with home or business, when revenues are less than expenditures, as they are now by a considerable margin, we’re already bankrupt…surviving only on credit.

While data can be manipulated, good raw data tells the story. But it is one of situation and circumstance. It is a snapshot of current reality.  It has little to do with the future, unless the present course is maintained. Every state and local government has reached hard decision points. It is now or never. Most economists encourage a multifaceted approach involving some tax increases, elimination of unwise programs, and a complete restructuring of entitlements, pensions, and the healthcare system. The guiding principle must be founded on what is in the best common interest of the country and every community. What is important to keep, eliminate, or redefine? As with home and business, it is not always pleasant, but decisive, thoughtful people can reach wise decisions. We must decide where we want to be in 10 years and chart a path to reach that destination. An arduous path perhaps, but one most of us have traveled before.

My position remains firm: create sensible strategic plans, define a new era of operational efficiency, develop prudent implementation strategies, create fact-driven long-term scenario plans, serve constituents with passion, and remain progressive as you consider emergent new options. Maintaining a bunker mentality will stifle perspectives that lead to long-term community success. Attention to long-term planning, coupled with internal employee and organizational development will pay huge dividends as the recovery continues and there is more clarity about options and opportunities. Take time to heal your community and organization, focus on efficiency and productivity, and establish a collaborative path forward. This is no time to hunker down or polarize. There is much to do and we must do it together.

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | 1 Comment »

City of the Future

Posted on March 10, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

Futurist Thomas Frey and others have written about the city of the future, with descriptions of amazing cityscapes, confluences of lovely people, and an emerging richness of life after peak oil. Echoing Richard Florida’s declaration that great cities emerge around great people who work in superior organizations, he advocates establishing magnetic incubators that attract talent. Those geographic areas and existing cities that are successful making the transition are those that will have the greatest opportunity for long-term sustainability.

Of course, what of the mayors who approached me some months back, asking what other options they had if their cities were not close to water, did not have an adjacent major highway, no airport, and no natural scenic wonders or national parks that might appeal to travelers or conventioneers?  This group was concerned about the difficulty of attracting the best and brightest, along with new enterprises when their communities had little to offer, based on the latest criteria for sustainable cities. What if these smaller cities are just great places to live and raise a family? What if one can find peace, harmony, space, and friendship there? Does that count for something? Certainly, but the question was about creating growing, vibrant, sustainable cities. Can you have it both ways? Not always.

Ten years ago, Governing Magazine published a story about Loudoun County, Virginia entitled, Rendezvous with Density. This cute title did not fully reveal deep issues imbedded in that county’s struggle to attract commerce while balancing quality of life associated with its rural nature. As noted by author Christopher Swope, the only thing people like less than suburban sprawl is urban density. Especially those suburbanites who have grown up on cheap gas and a willingness to make the trek to work from rural settings, the idea of urbanizing the rural landscape remains a foreign concept.

However, as Daniel Pink noted in his landmark book, Free Agent Nation, more people will telecommute and more will work as free agents. Technology allows more freedom to choose how one earns a living, which in turn may offer opportunities to either hunker down in the suburbs or travel while working remotely at various locales. More than anything, technology has brought latitude and choice (along with efficiency, capability and capacity).

Frey reminds us that technology allows (but does not necessarily encourage) greater collaboration among free agents or distributed employees and more shared tasks. Significant questions arise when one ponders how all of this can be managed effectively and what other than central support or service organizations can operate under this model. Do those working remotely contribute as much as those on site?  Do they collaborate as readily and are they as efficient? And, of course, how will performance be measured?

The larger question seems to be about evolving to a model using a complex equation that factors in higher transportation costs, defines quality of life, and establishes parameters that are proven to attract commerce. Growth must be sustained as citizens move or die. What keeps people around? Good schools, opportunity, harmony, good neighbors, beautiful landscapes, or fear?  All might apply here, but one set of criteria does not fit all communities.

In 1820 the population of Loudoun County was 23,000; it was only 24,549 in 1960. It is now 288,556 (2010).  Growth has been equated to its proximity to Washington D.C., the beautiful countryside, Dulles International Airport, and growth in new high tech businesses. But it is also attributable to the balance achieved between its rural DNA, evolution toward more urbanism, and sensible collaboration that attempts to meet the greatest common interest. Using contemporary marketing and economic development language, note how Loudoun characterizes itself:

  • A young, affluent, family-oriented, highly educated, and fast-growing population
  • A breadth of housing options including contemporary master-planned communities, historic homes, rural estates, and family farms
  • Schools that consistently rank among the best in the state and nation
  • Beautiful rural landscapes and open countryside that include DC’s Wine Country and Virginia horse country
  • A full spectrum of amenities including hotels, retail shops, restaurants, wineries, bed-and-breakfasts, pick-your-own fruit and vegetable gardens, historic small-towns, golf courses and equestrian facilities
  • Easy access to Washington, D.C., a culturally rich world capital

Pretty sweet place! It has a lot to offer…unlike other areas that may have fewer attributes to showcase.

The message here is complex. Communities are evolving. Some will devolve over time due to their inability to meet citizen and business needs. While somewhat Darwinian, communities suffer the same fate of species unable to adapt to a changing world. It’s not good or bad…it just is.

Has your community conducted assessments and scenario planning to determine various preferred futures? This is far different than comprehensive planning, which often plows forward with unsustainable plans that are bound to disappoint. Is there ample collaboration in your community? Are all players at the table and are they taking the long view? There is change in the air and the next three to five years will be critical.  Are you Prepared for Challenge?

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | 2 Comments »

Cultural Shifts and Transformations

Posted on February 23, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

Globalization has often been misconstrued and badly interpreted by those from whom we expect wisdom and guidance. Embracing a world that is becoming more ‘flat’ requires an understanding of this metaphor along with a deep understanding of cultural anthropology, history, economics and social psychology. On virtually every continent, there are significant changes taking place – some that will reshape the world order during the 21st Century.

Recent evolutions (not necessarily revolutions) in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and other Middle Eastern countries grew their roots in economic, cultural and technological soil. Populations there are young, frustrated, and thirsty for opportunity. While many in these populations are un- or moderately educated, they are becoming more aware of the greater world…what it is, what it offers, and how it can improve their lives. According to author Fareed Zakaria (The Post-American World, 2008), it represents ‘the rise of the rest’ as opposed to the decline of America. In fact, it has little to do with this country…or does it?

In many ways, the U.S. represents the planet’s most potent beacon of freedom, self-reliance, and self-determination. It is here that people are able to pursue life in an environment forged through the pursuit of liberty and self- actualization. It is here where people have the right to choose, elect, joust, and debate. But sadly, it is in this country that we also have the right to ignore, fantasize, neglect, and pretend. As often noted here, we have ridden this golden pony for a long time and the plot has turned. Given all that this country does and can do, will it be able to apply the brakes, make difficult decisions, and pull out of the current spin before it is too late? The whole world is watching. What will those witnesses see? What will our message be?

More and more, we are squabbling over the asinine. Good economics says that some tax increases can benefit the economy and culture while sowing seeds of greater equity. Government spending is necessary, but must be sensible and address commerce, security, and socio-cultural development. Immigration is a good thing, but must be regulated and have policies applied according to the current century- not driven by antiquated fears and provincial values. Globalization is not only good for America, it is the new order of things. We need to be more involved globally, not less involved (not advocating a boost in foreign aid…merely engaging with global markets and cultures). This must not be a political debate but a reasoned discourse that provides the underpinning for a prosperous future. There is far too much energy being expended on preserving historic norms rather than on developing modern policy platforms that allow the U.S. to refocus on leading the future through innovation and vision.

Over ten years ago, I began encouraging government leaders to confront reality; to become truth tellers above all else. We are now seeing the hand being forced by unbalanced budgets and calls for massive reductions in spending. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been walking point on significant budget reductions requiring fewer personnel, reduced and eliminated programs, salary cuts, pension concessions, and a call to do more with less. He has also made it clear that the revenue is just not there to support all the programs and services to which citizens have become entitled.

While decision makers are now (still) diddling around with 12% of the federal budget, the remainder is capsizing the country. Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and defense are again being ignored this year while ‘conversations’ about various aspects of elusive ‘common ground’ are being held. While it is a sham, voters have historically excised those who have spoken truth about debt and sacrifice. The historic path to reality is littered with those who dared to share real data and suggest bold action. One of the most chilling examples was the honesty of Walter Mondale who, in 1984 addressed the need to raise taxes, then handily lost the presidential election.  Ronald Reagan promised reduced government and no new taxes and won a resounding victory. He and Congress raised taxes 11 times in 8 years. Expedient or dishonest?

Governor Christie has taken the initiative during a transformative time. If he is able to restore fiscal balance and reduce government while maintaining essential services, he may enjoy popular support and achieve political tenure. He is talking truth, sharing data, and providing direction. If the results are forthcoming, he may have provided a path forward as the U.S. begins to restore restraint, transparency and honest dialogue to the political arena. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker seems to be following a similar path, even with current difficulties with unions and his calls for eliminating collective bargaining.

At least 30 states are in some stage of facing budget realities and the challenge of balancing the dueling demands of need, entitlement, expectations, and independence. We are not seeing ‘hard times.’ We are experiencing a return to realism that will take a decade to transform this nation. However difficult and unfair the sacrifices seem, they will leave this country stronger and better prepared for global competition and an integrated world. Buckle up. It will get wild for a few years.

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Leading The Future | Leave a Comment »

Taking the Lead…

Posted on February 3, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

Looking forward, through 2011 and well into this new decade, it seems apparent that leaders and leadership will be in great demand. Not to say there has been insufficient leadership in the past, but only that we must now fully embrace the enormous value and importance of leadership during the 21st century.

There appear to be four fundamental attributes required for sustained leadership. These go far beyond expertise and experience…they go to the heart of why we follow one person over another. The first attribute is the ability to engage others in shared, meaningful dialogue and experiences. These are situational leaders who, with even hand and clear voice, convert chaos into energetic commitment, demonstrating the wisdom of embracing change and opportunity. Second, the most riveting leaders are able to speak to issues with compelling, rational ideas in a manner that defuses or rallies, energizes or justifies. At various times, someone must step to the point and, with great harmony, offer sensible solutions and clear direction.

As we move further into this second decade, strong values and integrity will become more meaningful. This is the third attribute and is essential to address potent challenges that will assault every aspect of global society. There will be many opportunities to abdicate values and to take the easy, less arduous and honorable path. We need leaders who will do what is right…and who do not delay, excuse or pass to future generations legacies that will ensure decline, default and despair.

And finally, a leader’s most critical attribute is the ability to adapt while applying creative thought and energy to adversity. These are the personalities who understand the context of current difficulties, but are able to persevere and emerge stronger. These leaders are fearless but thoughtful, hardy but understanding, and willing to do what is necessary to ensure a better future. Where some would cease to grow or fail to engage, these men and women will face the future with a spirit forged in the cauldrons of economic turmoil, political gridlock, and a transforming world order. They are the new leaders…direct, open, honest, experienced, and committed to positive, collaborative change.

As noted previously, nothing matters more than the future. What kind of leaders will we be? More importantly, if we become the leaders described above, what legacies will we leave to our communities?

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Leading The Future | 2 Comments »

Government as Business?

Posted on January 11, 2011 by Dr. John Luthy

There has been encouragement over the past twenty-five years to manage government like a business, but there are some characteristics that do not translate. Anyone who has worked in both government and business can attest to the fact that these two sectors are hugely different and, in many cases, what works for one will fail miserably in the other.

To say the least, local, state and federal government is not as nimble as business. Comparatively, change occurs at a glacial pace in government, whereas in small business the velocity of change is embraced and new products are quickly calibrated to consumer desires and capricious markets. I think of government as ‘pre framed.’ For those of us who have joined a city, county or state government as new employees, the government and agency structure existed long before we became part of the workforce. For good or ill, new employees inherit structure, policies, and protocols that were most likely in place for decades. In political science, these entrenched systems are typically termed, ‘folkways’ and define how things are done in each venue. Are these inherited systems highly adaptable to forces of change? Hardly. Joining a new business start-up is a far different proposition than joining county government.

The concept of strategic thinking in public agencies is not new. Creating mission statements, identifying a vision, establishing goals, and formulating general strategies and specific actions are common elements of most plans. However, contemporary strategic thinking and planning for public agencies requires an entirely different perspective. Public agencies exist to provide services; they do not exist to generate profit for stockholders. They do not compete for markets and do not experience the win-lose environment of market competition. Some would argue that public enterprise agencies do indeed exist to generate profit; I would respond that these agencies are not competing against other service providers and additional earnings above operating costs must not far exceed the cost of providing that service or citizens would soon protest.

Ideal readers of this blog understand that government exists to serve its citizens, to provide a framework for society, to ensure the desired level of public health, reasonable public transportation, safe roads, clean water, disposal of wastewater and solid waste management. It exists to protect communities against harm caused by natural or man-made disasters, crime, or social injustice. It educates our young, provides national defense, and ensures some level of security for the disadvantaged and elderly. Above all, we expect public employees to maintain the essential foundation of society, allowing citizens to pursue that elusive and very personal prize we term ‘quality of life.’

During the past thirty-five years I have had the pleasure of evaluating hundreds of strategic plans prepared for city, county, state and federal agencies. Most are marginal at best. While this sounds judgmental, the genesis of my perspective has its roots in the variety of plan formats, language, and content I have seen. Most are merely aggregations of activities that are improperly termed ‘goals’ or ‘objectives.’ Many mission statements are actually visions or statements of values. Most plans provide a collage of good intentions without a clear data framework that leads to a point of departure for actual implementation and measured performance. Is this observation too harsh? Not really.

Many books on strategic planning were written by business writers who have tried to convert business planning language and process to public administration. While many terms, such as mission, values, goal, and objective seem immune to errant interpretation, this is not the case. Some variations are subtle, others are very different. Frankly, there is enormous value in standardized language and process that properly represents the challenges faced by public employees in public agencies.

Much of a manager’s effort must now be dedicated to public sector strategic thinking and planning. My book, Planning the Future, is dedicated to elected public officials, professional administrators, senior and middle managers, supervisors and employees who in so many profound ways are responsible for the future of our communities. It describes a fundamental future planning perspective that is unique to government. It is a process founded on identified issues and challenges, clear data, projected outputs and desired outcomes. It relies on sensible measurement and calibrated performance with a commitment to five basic operating parameters – efficiency, effectiveness, quality, productivity and cost.

2011 brings a new year with renewed promise and opportunity, but also ushers in new challenges, with budget shortfalls, eroding infrastructure, declining immunization rates, climate change, costly wars, lost programs and decimated services. This year will be difficult for many public agencies. Stimulus funds have been spent and additional funds are unavailable. States are on their own – isolated by the mere fact that they alone are accountable for balanced annual budgets. Years of expansion have dulled the ability of many managers to effectively conduct meaningful triage at a time when elective reductions are essential. And, many budding challenges were sown with promises that could not possibly be kept.

Strategic thinking must emerge as a new, more appreciated creative process. There are answers to the questions. But, understand going in that none will be easy and 2011 begins an era of sacrifice and prudent contraction.

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His new book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, was released in October 2010. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at www.futurescorp.com).

Filed under: Preparing for the Future | 2 Comments »

« Previous Page — Next Page »
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.