Sociologists and cultural anthropologists have warned us for some time that the defining characteristic of the future will be ambiguity…that sense of uncertainty and anticipation that breeds anxiety and apprehension. These descriptors are not the best foundation on which to build trust and long-term investment strategies. Neither are they the characteristics we seek when contemplating going to college, pursuing a graduate degree, raising a family or starting a new enterprise. This environment inhibits passion for the future while depreciating much of what we have worked so hard to accomplish over the past several decades. And, if you are a Boomer, recent political and economic rhetoric does little to lift the spirit.
For close to twenty years, there have been admonitions that this particular decade, especially since the 2007/8 recession, would be transformational. Discussed often in this space, every sign has pointed to a period in global and U.S. history that would result in enormous worldwide competition, declining resources, growing populations, climate change, higher expectations, aging populations, fewer craftsmen and skilled workers, and growing concerns about water. This is not new. Since 1946 the world has struggled to regain its balance; global infrastructure had to be rebuilt, institutions re-established, and governments restructured. In historic terms, this has all occurred at an enormous pace and, for many countries, while it has ebbed and flowed, both trajectory and pace have continue to soar.
Fear, isolation and nationalism have become centerpiece topics in the recent political circus. While committed here to an apolitical stance, it is difficult due to the misinformation, misdirection, posturing and absolutely vacuous rhetoric that saturates the nightly news. In fact, America is strong. Any review of the data will show that it has a strong defense and a stable, if not fully robust economy. Wages have not kept up nor have the type of new jobs that we are used to based on historic expectations, but this is a different time…there is a transformation taking place and we are just now at the front end of this period of massive change.
The answer is not to build walls, punish immigrants, segregate religions or conjure rationale for divisive action. The path forward lies in this country’s ability to understand the emerging world, harness its amazing opportunities and create a new foundation for progress.
There are amazing new technologies that will totally transform power generation, automobiles, mass transit, communication, computing, construction and agriculture. The ability for virtually anyone to learn, understand and pursue knowledge is opening portals to new business enterprises and relationships that could bring geometric progress. Unfortunately, due to a myopic media, much of this has been overlooked while buffoonery, antagonism, incoherence and ditzy logic rules the day.
Does anyone understand that growth is never constant? That it is non-linear and that the plot always turns? Is there recognition that the U.S. has enjoyed a long, successful run that is not remotely close to being over, but is merely recalibrating? And, that there is never a forever accelerating and inclining progress curve? The U.S. is the only country that recovered relatively quickly from the Great Recession and, while full recovery is elusive, this country is in far better shape than any country in the world. Why then, when there are so many positive economic and social indicators, is the focus on those that remain negative?
One might wonder if future historians will be puzzled by the gloom and doom rhetoric when, by all objective measures, the past three decades have been the best in history, especially in terms of human well-being. While Samuel Huntington warned us about the impending clash of nations, what has actually occurred is a confluence of civilizations and cultures. Never perfect, this blending of global cultures has been accelerating for the past two decades. Consider China twenty years ago. Those of us who worked there can attest that the mid-1990’s were amazingly different than today. And the model for China’s development? The United States…even if the Party can’t admit it, Chinese historians and sociologists openly admit that it was the U.S. model that motivated that country’s passion for development.
There is an amazing worldview that is being obfuscated by the clueless, often savage attacks reported by the media during this political campaign. Those still caught up in ideological debates about communism, democracy, theocracy and other forms of governance seem unable to grasp that the planet has evolved to one driver – capitalism. Certainly, there is a small percent of religious fundamentalists (mostly Muslim, it would appear) who remain far outside the norm, but most populations have, in some way, embraced capitalism and have joined the global market. To forge a major platform without focusing on the vast majority of countries and their populations is idiotic. Yes, there are threats to America. They are known and are being addressed. But what about our future? What cornerstones will be used to build a nation that is sustainable, prosperous, engaged, admired, and progressive?
For the record, there is irrefutable data that verifies that the vast majority of the planet’s 1.6 billion Muslims are totally compatible with and supportive of the modernizing world. In populations of millions, there may be only 15,000 thugs who are more comparable to gangs than religious sects. They are the outliers; they are dangerous, but they must not be the basis for America’s foreign policy.
Fareed Zakaria, in his book The Post-American World (W.W. Norton, 2008), provides multiple anecdotes that demonstrate the accelerated pace at which other countries have tried to catch up with America. Even in the overleaf, there is a comment that states, “The current political debate in the United States is utterly out of touch with this broad development, obsessed with issues like terrorism, immigration, homeland security, and economic panics.” Keep in mind that this was written eight years ago and acknowledged then that, when dealing with pure fact, that the world has merely been catching up with the U.S. As a country, America is not in decline, it is merely seeing other countries finally grow into more competitive positions. Tom Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum, in their 2011 book, That Used to Be Us, cited many of the same facts and drew similar conclusions.
The real message as we approach mid-year, is that bluster, misinformation and predatory, corrosive rhetoric does not reflect the true nature of America. If we are to avoid decline and implosion, we must keep in mind that people gravitate to four things: clarity, direction, truth, and a dignified, harmonious leadership style. For the next five months, all eyes will be on this country. One would hope that, during an election spectacle that warrants worldwide coverage, we will demonstrate a leadership style that reflects the true and enduring nature of America.
With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies. Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). Reprints of his book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders (2010) has sold out three times. An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at http://www.futurescorp.com).