• Welcome to the FUTURE!

    The PublicFutures BLOG keeps you current on the latest research and thinking on major trends, policy shifts, 'hot topics', and evolving perspectives about the Future. Be sure to subscribe to the RSS or get email updates so you are kept up-to-date on all the latest posts.
  • Email Updates

  • Share the FUTURE with the world!

  • Learn more at our Company Site

Coming Home

A new tsunami is heading toward these shores. It has already begun and its impact will be felt in communities across America. To be sure, it remains subtle, but is gaining momentum and power as it races eastward.

For some time, various sources have reported the growing costs associated with doing business in China. Shipping costs are up over 15 percent and wages in Chinese factories have risen 15 to 20 percent annually for the past four years. Harold Sirkin (Boston Consulting Group) has predicted that overall business costs in the U.S. and China will converge around 2015, meaning there is no sensible reason to move manufacturing to China when there is no real cost advantage.

Combining transportation, storage, labor, and general operating costs, the playing field is becoming more level. And, with more delivery and quality issues now being identified, there is a growing case for relocating back to the U.S. Coupled with these justifications are even more reasons to consider a shift.

The U.S. remains the world’s largest economy and, even though it remains in a tenuous recovery, there are signs that the current careful, deliberate approach is beginning to pay dividends. The population continues to grow, consumer confidence is increasing, unemployment is drifting downward, and new jobs are being introduced. These are all good signs and, when combined with expedient business decisions, signal an emerging environment that will support robust manufacturing growth.

Much of our work at The Futures Corporation involves mapping ‘converging variables.’ We are currently watching fuel, container, and labor costs, along with community willingness to share some portion of new plant startup investment and provide long-term incentives. But another variable has emerged that is just as potent: the innovation/ design/ manufacturing/ shipping/ purchasing cycle has accelerated. Due partly to the desire to avoid large inventories and to accelerate product turns, many outlets want just-in-time ordering, which requires fast response times from proximal manufacturers. Cycle times between China and the U.S. have grown too long and require too much transportation and storage to meet growing demand for rapid turnaround AND decent pricing. Retail and wholesale outlets want smaller inventories and rapid resupply, neither of which is possible with plants in China, unless larger inventories are kept on shore. This, of course, is exactly what most managers want to avoid.

Innovation and rapid prototyping has also added to the equation. Many firms are concerned about accelerating development cycles to keep pace with competitors. This translates into a formula that requires proximity, small inventories, fast delivery, and quick response to market fluctuations.

Most observers have recognized that the entire equation has begun to shift and accelerate. Those who wait too long to re-shore manufacturing may miss rapidly evolving markets, causing delays that could cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Delay could also cause a serious loss of market share or a repositioning of market leaders. Consequently, there is a burgeoning interest in finding suitable community locations to build or relocate manufacturing plants. Communities that recognize this phenomenon can reap enormous rewards IF they create suitable value propositions that match industry needs.

This raises a key question: Are communities throughout the U.S. recognizing this major trend and preparing for the next 10-to-20 year cycle? This one trend could very well be the essential event that will boost the U.S. economy out of its post-recession doldrums and launch the next boom cycle. Are communities prepared? Do they recognize what is occurring and are they making plans to attract emerging enterprises seeking optimal locations?

Economic development requires insight, prescience and a dedication to trend analysis. The data are clear: this is a major shift that will have enormous consequences to American business, consumers, and the economy. As the U.S. labor force becomes more realistic about wages and benefits, relocating manufacturing to American communities becomes the fundamental factor in a new economic equation. Proximity, reduced manufacturing costs, rapid response and pride in American goods are potent forces for change.

Unfortunately, the question remains, do community leaders, planners, and economic development professionals recognize the trend and are preparations underway? The communities that recognize this major shift and plan accordingly will prosper. Those that fail to perceive the opportunities or to prepare accordingly may continue to struggle. This would be unnecessary. It would also be a shame for those communities.

With over three decades working in and with federal, state and local government, John Luthy understands public agencies.  Known for his real world, straight talking style, he is a leading futurist specializing in city, county, state, and federal government long-range thinking and planning. John is the author of Operations Planning: A Guide for Public Officials and Managers in Troubled Times, and The Strategic Planning Guide, both published by the International City/ County Management Association (ICMA). His 2010 book, Planning the Future – A Guide to Strategic Thinking and Planning for Elected Officials, Public Administrators and Community Leaders, is being hailed as the best book for public managers and community leaders who are committed to building a sustainable future.  An innovative and dynamic presenter, John is frequently asked to speak and consult on how to prepare public organizations and communities for emerging challenges (public futures at http://www.futurescorp.com).

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: